FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Benfica 3–1 Gil VicenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 63%. Bawler had Benfica at 63%, the draw at 22% and Gil Vicente at 15%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
63%
Result
Draw
22%
Gil Vicente win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Benfica's home win prediction rests on a decisive 1.14 expected-goals advantage, with striker Pavlidis accounting for nearly 30% of their attacking threat against a Gil Vicente side generating just 0.86 xG."