FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Birmingham City 2–2 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 66%. Bawler had Birmingham City at 34%, the draw at 27% and Middlesbrough at 38%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Birmingham City win
34%
Draw
27%
Result
Middlesbrough win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 72% because combined xG reaches 2.53, with Middlesbrough's marginal 1.32 xG edge enough to push a low-scoring matchup into multi-goal territory."