FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Birmingham City 1–1 SouthamptonMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 65%. Bawler had Birmingham City at 35%, the draw at 27% and Southampton at 37%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Birmingham City win
35%
Draw
27%
Result
Southampton win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.