How it finished
Birmingham City and Southampton drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Southampton at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Birmingham City had 16 shots (4 on target) to Southampton's 13 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Birmingham City vs Southampton?
Birmingham City and Southampton drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Southampton at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals and the match produced 2. Birmingham City had 16 shots (4 on target) to Southampton's 13 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.9.
What was the final score in Birmingham City vs Southampton?
Birmingham City 1–1 Southampton, played on 01 Sept 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Birmingham City 35%, the draw 27% and Southampton 37%.
What were the stats in Birmingham City vs Southampton?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.9, Shots 16–13, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 10–11, Big chances 4–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 3–3, Fouls 12–8, Offsides 2–5, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Birmingham City vs Southampton?
Yes — both Birmingham City and Southampton scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Birmingham City vs Southampton right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Southampton or draw 65%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.