FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Blackburn Rovers 2–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 72%. Bawler had Blackburn Rovers at 28%, the draw at 29% and Middlesbrough at 43%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Blackburn Rovers win
28%
Result
Draw
29%
Middlesbrough win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.4
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Middlesbrough or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.