FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Bolivia 0–2 ParaguayMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Bolivia
0–2
Paraguay win
Paraguay

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Paraguay to win at 71%. Bawler had Bolivia at 9%, the draw at 20% and Paraguay at 71%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Bolivia win
9%
Draw
20%
Paraguay win
71%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.6 – 2.0
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Paraguay to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Paraguay's away win is the model's high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 1.37 xG advantage and 69% win probability over a Bolivia side managing just 0.58 expected goals."

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