FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Bologna 1–1 TorinoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bologna or draw at 76%. Bawler had Bologna at 50%, the draw at 26% and Torino at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bologna win
50%
Draw
26%
Result
Torino win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bologna or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, built on Bologna's 0.56 xG advantage and Orsolini's creation threat from the wing against a Torino side generating just 1.09 expected goals."