FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Bolton Wanderers 2–1 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bolton Wanderers or draw at 78%. Bawler had Bolton Wanderers at 48%, the draw at 30% and Preston North End at 22%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bolton Wanderers win
48%
Result
Draw
30%
Preston North End win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.