FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Borussia Dortmund 3–2 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund or draw at 77%. Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 54%, the draw at 24% and Villarreal at 23%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Dortmund win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Villarreal win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Borussia Dortmund to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast here, with Dortmund's 1.90 xG and Guirassy's 30% shot share creating enough attacking volume to breach Villarreal's 1.17 xG defense."