FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 MainzMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Mainz or draw at 65%. Bawler had Borussia Mönchengladbach at 35%, the draw at 25% and Mainz at 40%. The match finished 3–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
35%
Draw
25%
Mainz win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+3.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Mönchengladbach at 1.49 xG and Mainz at 1.44—leaving little defensive separation in a fixture the model rates as genuinely even."