How it finished
Mainz beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3. Bawler's model had Mainz in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 7. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 21 shots (7 on target) to Mainz's 17 (8), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 3.4 to 2.7, so Borussia Mönchengladbach created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?
Mainz beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3. Bawler's model had Mainz in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 7. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 21 shots (7 on target) to Mainz's 17 (8), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 3.4 to 2.7, so Borussia Mönchengladbach created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 Mainz, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Borussia Mönchengladbach 35%, the draw 25% and Mainz 40%.
What were the stats in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 3.4–2.7, Shots 21–17, Shots on target 7–8, Shots inside box 15–15, Big chances 4–5, Corners 6–4, Saves 4–4, Fouls 12–14, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 6–5.
Did both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz?
Yes — both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Mainz scored, finishing 3–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Mainz or draw 65%, it finished Mainz won (40% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Landed.