FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 02 October 2026

Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–1 SwedenMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 02 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw at 71%. Bawler had Bosnia-Herzegovina at 47%, the draw at 24% and Sweden at 29%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Bosnia-Herzegovina win
47%
Draw
24%
Result
Sweden win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.9 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 84%, anchored by Bosnia-Herzegovina's 0.34 xG advantage and Džeko's prolific 22% of team output against Sweden's blunt 1.49 xG creation."

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