FT · England: Premier League · Friday, 18 September 2026
Brentford 3–0 ChelseaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brentford or draw at 69%. Bawler had Brentford at 44%, the draw at 25% and Chelsea at 31%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brentford win
44%
Result
Draw
25%
Chelsea win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 82%, backed by Brentford's 0.31 xG edge and Igor Thiago Nascimento's 34% shot share threatening a low-block Chelsea side generating just 1.42 xG."