FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Brest 0–1 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain or draw at 81%. Bawler had Brest at 19%, the draw at 23% and Paris Saint-Germain at 58%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brest win
19%
Draw
23%
Paris Saint-Germain win
58%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.0
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 81% forecast because PSG's 2.00 xG versus Brest's 1.07 creates a 0.94-goal edge that typically produces multiple scores."