FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Brighton & Hove Albion 3–0 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 73%. Bawler had Brighton & Hove Albion at 27%, the draw at 27% and Arsenal at 46%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brighton & Hove Albion win
27%
Result
Draw
27%
Arsenal win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's superior shot quality—a 0.37 xG edge and 45% win probability versus Brighton's 27%—makes Arsenal or draw the high-confidence forecast at 73%."