FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 66%. Bawler had Bristol City at 38%, the draw at 27% and Lincoln City at 34%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bristol City win
38%
Draw
27%
Lincoln City win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lincoln City or draw
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bristol City's home advantage and marginal xG edge (1.40 to 1.31) make Lincoln City or draw—a draw or away win—the model's high-confidence call at 62%, reflecting how evenly matched these sides project."