FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Burnley 1–2 Bristol CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 80%. Bawler had Burnley at 56%, the draw at 24% and Bristol City at 20%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
56%
Draw
24%
Bristol City win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Burnley or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Burnley's playoff survival desperation against a Bristol City side with nothing to play for tilts the model toward Burnley or draw at 82%, anchored by the hosts' 0.94 xG advantage and striker Zian Flemming controlling nearly a third of their attacking threat."