FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Cagliari 0–1 InternazionaleMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Internazionale or draw at 82%. Bawler had Cagliari at 18%, the draw at 24% and Internazionale at 59%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
18%
Draw
24%
Internazionale win
59%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.9
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 3.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Internazionale or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.