FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 07 September 2026
Cagliari 1–0 LecceMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cagliari or draw at 75%. Bawler had Cagliari at 47%, the draw at 28% and Lecce at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
47%
Result
Draw
28%
Lecce win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Medium confidence
Cagliari or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lecce's desperate fight for survival clashes with Cagliari's mid-table comfort, but the home side's 0.40 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 72% forecast."