World: World CupSaturday 04 Jul, 17:00 UTC

Canada vMorocco

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.63 goals expected
Canada 32%Draw 32%Morocco 36%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
71%

Over 2.5 Goals lands at 68% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.26 and 1.29 xG respectively, with Davies and En-Nesyri primed to deliver in a dead-even contest.

How we get there
CanadastepMorocco
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.42
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.35
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Canada average 15.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Morocco average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Jonathan David
Canada · Juventus
46%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Canada vs Morocco — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Canada and Morocco — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Canada 32% · draw 32% · Morocco 36%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Canada 03 Morocco
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.