FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Cardiff City 3–1 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cardiff City or draw at 75%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 48%, the draw at 26% and Charlton Athletic at 25%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Charlton Athletic win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Charlton Athletic to win
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 73%, driven by Cardiff's 0.34 xG advantage and superior shot-creation despite sitting outside the top six."