FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Monday, 17 August 2026
Cardiff City 1–1 WrexhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cardiff City or draw at 79%. Bawler had Cardiff City at 48%, the draw at 31% and Wrexham at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Cardiff City win
48%
Draw
31%
Result
Wrexham win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.