Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Wrexham
Team profile

Wrexham Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
11.1
a game
13.2 faced
On target
3.7
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
21%
Wrexham win chance
at Cardiff City · Mon 17 Aug 19:00

Wrexham prediction: for Wrexham's next match — Cardiff City vs Wrexham on Monday 17 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Cardiff City are favoured (48%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Wrexham sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.34 expected goals a game and conceding 1.27. Next up is a trip to Cardiff City, where the model has them as underdogs at 21%.

Wrexham in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 1.7Away 1.1
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 5.0Away 3.8
11.1
Shots · per game
faced 13.2
Home 13.5Away 8.6
3.7
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 4.6Away 2.8
Last 6 games
07 Aug
0-1
@ Middlesbrough
-
02 Aug
0-1
vs Sunderland
0-0
30 Jul
0-1
@ Liverpool
4-3
02 May
2-2
vs Middlesbrough
6-3
26 Apr
1-3
@ Coventry
4-5
21 Apr
1-0
@ Oxford Utd
5-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Cardiff City · Monday 17 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
21%
Wrexham
Draw
31%
Loss
48%
Cardiff City
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 76%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Wrexham compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.34
Above average
Goals against
1.27
Tighter than most
Record
2W 1D 2L
5 settled
Real goals
1.4 – 1.8
For / against, per match
Scored1.34
Conceded1.27

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Wrexham fixtures (3/3).
Squad availability · Wrexham vs Cardiff City
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Wrexham

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sat 22 Augvs Watford

Recent matches (last 5)

Fri 07 Aug@ Middlesbrough
High confidence: Home Win
Sat 18 Aprvs Stoke
High confidence: 1X
Tue 07 Aprvs Southampton
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Apr@ West Brom
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 21 Mar@ Sheffield Utd
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAnthony PattersonGKfrom Sunderland€9.2m
INDaniel ImrayRBfrom Crystal Palace€5.9m
INBen WhitemanCMfrom Preston North End€3.5m
OUTRyan HardieSTto Bolton WanderersLoan
OUTLewis BruntCBto Bolton WanderersUndisclosed
OUTThomas O'ConnorCBto Peterborough UnitedFree transfer
OUTPaul MullinSTto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTJay RodriguezAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTMo FaalSTto Port ValeLoan
OUTAndy CannonAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTReuben Eganto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Wrexham and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly