FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Casa Pia 1–4 FC PortoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto to win at 70%. Bawler had Casa Pia at 10%, the draw at 20% and FC Porto at 70%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Casa Pia win
10%
Draw
20%
FC Porto win
70%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.7 – 2.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Porto to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Porto's away win is the model's 70% call, built on a 1.41 xG advantage and Samu Aghehowa's striker role commanding 28% of their attacking threat."