How it finished
FC Porto beat Casa Pia 4–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 70% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Casa Pia had 15 shots (5 on target) to FC Porto's 17 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
FC Porto beat Casa Pia 4–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 70% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Casa Pia had 15 shots (5 on target) to FC Porto's 17 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.5.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Casa Pia 1–4 FC Porto, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Casa Pia 10%, the draw 20% and FC Porto 70%.
What were the stats in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–2.5, Shots 15–17, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 6–12, Big chances 3–4, Corners 5–10, Saves 0–4, Fouls 13–10, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 4–1.
Did both teams score in Casa Pia vs FC Porto?
Yes — both Casa Pia and FC Porto scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 43% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Casa Pia vs FC Porto right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Porto to win 70%, it finished FC Porto won (70% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 43%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.