FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Celta Vigo 5–0 Racing SantanderMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 77%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 54%, the draw at 24% and Racing Santander at 23%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Racing Santander win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celta Vigo to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Celta's 0.65 expected-goals edge powers the Celta Vigo or draw forecast to 77% confidence, suggesting the home side's attacking superiority should prevent a Racing victory."