FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Celtic 1–3 FerencvarosMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 68%. Bawler had Celtic at 42%, the draw at 26% and Ferencvaros at 32%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
42%
Draw
26%
Ferencvaros win
32%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Celtic 1.53 xG, Ferencvaros 1.30—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in this Europa League tie."