How it finished
Ferencvaros beat Celtic 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Celtic at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ferencvaros 32%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Celtic had 16 shots (4 on target) to Ferencvaros' 14 (6), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 1.0, so Celtic created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 69%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Celtic vs Ferencvaros?
Ferencvaros beat Celtic 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Celtic at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ferencvaros 32%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Celtic had 16 shots (4 on target) to Ferencvaros' 14 (6), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 1.0 to 1.0, so Celtic created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Celtic vs Ferencvaros?
Celtic 1–3 Ferencvaros, played on 17 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Celtic 42%, the draw 26% and Ferencvaros 32%.
What were the stats in Celtic vs Ferencvaros?
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–1.0, Shots 16–14, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 11–8, Big chances 3–1, Corners 11–3, Saves 3–3, Fouls 18–14, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 0–2.
Did both teams score in Celtic vs Ferencvaros?
Yes — both Celtic and Ferencvaros scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Celtic vs Ferencvaros right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Celtic or draw 68%, it finished Ferencvaros won (32% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.