FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
CF Montréal 1–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was CF Montréal or draw at 64%. Bawler had CF Montréal at 38%, the draw at 26% and Charlotte FC at 36%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
CF Montréal win
38%
Draw
26%
Charlotte FC win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 80%, grounded in a combined expected-goals total of 2.98 that signals both sides will generate genuine attacking chances despite Montreal's narrow 38% win probability."