FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
CF Montréal 3–1 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was CF Montréal or draw at 63%. Bawler had CF Montréal at 39%, the draw at 24% and FC Cincinnati at 37%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
CF Montréal win
39%
Result
Draw
24%
FC Cincinnati win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 85% because both sides generate nearly identical expected goals—Montréal 1.72, Cincinnati 1.66—in a fixture the model rates as evenly matched."