FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Charlton Athletic 0–0 PortsmouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlton Athletic or draw at 66%. Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 36%, the draw at 29% and Portsmouth at 34%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlton Athletic win
36%
Draw
29%
Result
Portsmouth win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.2
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Charlton Athletic or draw
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Charlton's home advantage and superior win probability (36% vs Portsmouth's 34%) point to Charlton Athletic or draw as the model's high-confidence call at 66%, though the razor-thin xG gap of 0.04 signals a genuinely competitive contest."