FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 44%, the draw at 22% and Inter Miami CF at 34%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
44%
Draw
22%
Result
Inter Miami CF win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.8
Total 3.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 90% confidence as both sides combine for 3.84 xG, with Chicago's 2.05 home advantage and Messi's creative pull for Miami (35% of their xG) driving a narrow gap that favors attacking intent."