FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 54%, the draw at 23% and New England Revolution at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
54%
Draw
23%
New England Revolution win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Chicago Fire FC to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, with Chicago generating a 0.73 expected-goals advantage and the combined xG total reaching 3.18."