FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

China 0–3 New ZealandMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

China
0–3
New Zealand win
New Zealand

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was China or draw at 70%. Bawler had China at 44%, the draw at 26% and New Zealand at 30%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

China win
44%
Draw
26%
New Zealand win
30%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 78% forecast confidence, backed by China's 0.34 expected-goal edge and a combined xG pool of 2.86 that favors goal-heavy play."

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