How it finished
New Zealand beat China 3–0. Bawler's model favoured China at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave New Zealand 30%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. China had 9 shots (2 on target) to New Zealand's 13 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won China vs New Zealand?
New Zealand beat China 3–0. Bawler's model favoured China at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave New Zealand 30%. It forecast 2.9 goals and the match produced 3. China had 9 shots (2 on target) to New Zealand's 13 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.5.
What was the final score in China vs New Zealand?
China 0–3 New Zealand, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with China 44%, the draw 26% and New Zealand 30%.
What were the stats in China vs New Zealand?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–2.5, Shots 9–13, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 4–12, Big chances 0–6, Corners 3–5, Saves 3–2, Fouls 13–9, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in China vs New Zealand?
No. It finished 0–3, so China failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for China vs New Zealand right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said China or draw 70%, it finished New Zealand won (30% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.