What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win China vs Turkmenistan?
Bawler's model rates this match: Turkmenistan are favoured (38% win probability vs 33% for China, 29% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for China vs Turkmenistan?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is China 1-1 Turkmenistan (13.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict China vs Turkmenistan?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives China 33%, the draw 29% and Turkmenistan 38%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in China vs Turkmenistan?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. That is based on China expecting 1.20 goals and Turkmenistan 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in China vs Turkmenistan?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 45%.