FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Club Brugge 2–3 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa or draw at 72%. Bawler had Club Brugge at 28%, the draw at 24% and Aston Villa at 48%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Club Brugge win
28%
Draw
24%
Aston Villa win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.9
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Aston Villa or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Aston Villa or draw is the high-confidence call at 71%, as Aston Villa's 1.89 xG edge and 48% win probability over Club Brugge's 29% suggest the visitors will either win or draw in this Champions League clash."