FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 CF MontréalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Colorado Rapids or draw at 75%. Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 51%, the draw at 24% and CF Montréal at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Colorado Rapids win
51%
Result
Draw
24%
CF Montréal win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Medium confidence
Colorado Rapids to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, driven by Colorado's 0.60 xG advantage and a combined 3.04 expected goals that strongly favors an open, multi-goal contest."