FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Colorado Rapids 3–3 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Colorado Rapids or draw at 67%. Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 40%, the draw at 26% and Seattle Sounders FC at 33%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Colorado Rapids win
40%
Draw
26%
Result
Seattle Sounders FC win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because Colorado's 1.57 xG and Seattle's 1.45 xG combine for a 3.01 total that reliably generates multiple scores."