Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders FC drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Colorado Rapids at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 6. Colorado Rapids had 18 shots (7 on target) to Seattle Sounders FC's 16 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders FC drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Colorado Rapids at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 6. Colorado Rapids had 18 shots (7 on target) to Seattle Sounders FC's 16 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.0.
Colorado Rapids 3–3 Seattle Sounders FC, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Colorado Rapids 40%, the draw 26% and Seattle Sounders FC 33%.
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.0, Shots 18–16, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 15–10, Big chances 2–0, Corners 4–6, Saves 3–4, Fouls 17–14, Offsides 3–2, Yellow cards 1–0.
Yes — both Colorado Rapids and Seattle Sounders FC scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Colorado Rapids or draw 67%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.