FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Columbus Crew 0–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Columbus Crew or draw at 78%. Bawler had Columbus Crew at 56%, the draw at 22% and Red Bull New York at 22%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Columbus Crew win
56%
Draw
22%
Red Bull New York win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, built on Columbus Crew's 0.84 xG advantage and Diego Rossi's creative influence on a team generating 2.08 expected goals at home."