FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Como 4–1 RB LeipzigMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 77%. Bawler had Como at 54%, the draw at 23% and RB Leipzig at 23%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Como win
54%
Result
Draw
23%
RB Leipzig win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Como to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (83%) because Como's 1.97 expected goals and 0.74 xG advantage suggests multiple chances will materialize against Leipzig's 1.23 xG output."