FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Crystal Palace 3–0 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace to win at 64%. Bawler had Crystal Palace at 64%, the draw at 22% and Middlesbrough at 15%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Crystal Palace win
64%
Result
Draw
22%
Middlesbrough win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Crystal Palace to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Crystal Palace's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a dominant 1.16 xG advantage led by Mateta and Sarr's combined 56% of team attacking output against Middlesbrough's 0.89 xG."