FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Czechia 1–2 CroatiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Czechia
1–2
Croatia win
Croatia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Croatia or draw at 67%. Bawler had Czechia at 33%, the draw at 25% and Croatia at 42%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Czechia win
33%
Draw
25%
Croatia win
42%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 83%, with both sides generating 3.22 combined xG and Croatia's 1.70 shot quality giving them a 42% win probability despite playing away."

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