FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Czechia 0–2 EnglandMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Czechia
0–2
England win
England

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was England to win at 75%. Bawler had Czechia at 9%, the draw at 16% and England at 75%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Czechia win
9%
Draw
16%
England win
75%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.8 – 2.6
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
England to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"England's away victory is the model's 70% call, built on a dominant 1.51 xG advantage and Kane's 22% team shot creation that should exploit Czechia's 0.91 expected goals."

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