World: World CupThursday 25 Jun, 01:00 UTC

Czechia vMexico

Most likely scoreline
01
12% of the time · 2.60 goals expected
Czechia 21%Draw 31%Mexico 48%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% because Mexico's 1.60 xG and Santiago Giménez's creative weight give Czechia no margin for error at home.

How we get there
CzechiastepMexico
1.00Base xG · rolling 26-match1.60
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.00Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.60
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Both teams to score
50%
Czechia to win
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Mexico average 5.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
12
10
5
2
1
1
7
12
10
5
2
1
2
4
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Santiago Giménez
Mexico · AC Milan
42%
To score
Raúl Jiménez
Mexico · Fulham
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Czechia vs Mexico — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Czechia and Mexico — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Czechia 21% · draw 31% · Mexico 48%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Czechia 03 Mexico
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.