FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026

D.C. United 0–0 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was D.C. United or draw at 72%. Bawler had D.C. United at 46%, the draw at 26% and Atlanta United FC at 28%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

D.C. United win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Atlanta United FC win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 1.4
From the match itself

The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"D.C. United's 0.37 xG advantage fuels the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 78%, as Atlanta's creator Thiago Almada anchors an attack that will keep this entertaining at a total expected output of 2.85."

More from Bawler