FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
D.C. United 2–1 Columbus CrewMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Columbus Crew or draw at 65%. Bawler had D.C. United at 35%, the draw at 27% and Columbus Crew at 38%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
D.C. United win
35%
Result
Draw
27%
Columbus Crew win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 76% forecast confidence as both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.33 and 1.41 xG, with Diego Rossi's wing play driving a third of Columbus's chances."