FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Denmark 2–4 PortugalMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Denmark
2–4
Portugal win
Portugal

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Portugal or draw at 77%. Bawler had Denmark at 23%, the draw at 24% and Portugal at 53%. The match finished 2–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Denmark win
23%
Draw
24%
Portugal win
53%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.8
From the match itself

The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Portugal to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, driven by Portugal's 0.70 xG advantage and Ronaldo and Leão combining for 38% of their team's attacking threat."

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