FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Denmark 2–0 WalesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Denmark
2–0
Denmark win
Wales

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Denmark to win at 74%. Bawler had Denmark at 74%, the draw at 16% and Wales at 10%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Denmark win
74%
Result
Draw
16%
Wales win
10%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.9
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Denmark to win
Pre-match: 74%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Denmark's home win prediction rests on a decisive 1.95 expected-goals advantage, with the model favouring the hosts at 77 percent probability."

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